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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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